Issue Briefs

Electoral Agendas and Political Shifts: Indonesian Elections 2024

Indonesia is at a critical political juncture with the impending election on February 14th. Despite a vigorous electoral process, the country’s democracy is mostly dominated by elites who rose to power during Suharto’s authoritarian era. Joko Widodo, the popular president, initially disturbed this pattern but later relented to following the established rules. The year 2024 will see Indonesia’s sixth round of legislative elections in its democratic era. This will also be the fifth consecutive election in which Indonesians vote directly for president (the The 1999 presidential election was indirect, giving the Indonesian people a say in who holds the top political office in the world’s fourth-most populous nation.

Indonesia’s Political System

Indonesia is a republic with a presidential system that has experienced considerable political and governmental reforms since the dissolution of the New Order in 1998. Four constitutional changes altered the executive, legislative, and judicial institutions. The president is the head of state, the head of government, the commander-in-chief of the military, and the director of domestic and foreign affairs, and he or she may serve no more than two consecutive five-year terms. The People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) is the highest representative assembly, with the authority to modify the constitution, inaugurate and impeach the president, and formulate national policy. It is made up of two houses: the People’s Representative Council (DPR), with 575 members, and the Regional Representative Council (DPD), with 136 members. The DPR passes legislation and has a larger role in national governance, while the DPD focuses on regional management.

Civil issues are resolved in the State Court, while appeals are considered in the High Court. The Supreme Court is the highest judicial level, responsible for final cease appeals and case reviews. Other courts include the Constitutional Court, which handles constitutional and political issues, and the Religious Court, which hears Islamic Personal Law cases. The Judicial Commission monitors judges’ performance. These institutions demonstrate Indonesia’s commitment to a unitary state with decentralized powers for regional entities.

General Information about 2024 Indonesian Elections

Subianto, Anies Baswedan, and Ganjar Pranowo are among the leading candidates in the 2024 race. Subianto’s latest political job involves avoiding harsh policy statements and imitating Widodo’s approach to appeal to younger voters. Polls indicate a close battle between Subianto and Pranowo.

Prabowo Subianto, 72, a former military general and current defense minister, is now topping surveys. His supporters see him as a tough leader capable of restoring stability, and he has promised to continue Jokowi’s development ambitions. This is Prabowo’s third candidacy for president. He lost against Jokowi in both 2014 and 2019. This time, Prabowo is running on the same platform as vice-presidential candidate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s eldest son. This could allow him to capitalize on the outgoing president’s political clout, but it has also sparked misgivings among some voters about dynastic politics.

Anies Baswedan, 54, is a former scholar who previously served as Jakarta governor. Anies has been portrayed as the antithesis of Jokowi. He is the only contender who has not pledged to continue Jokowi’s initiative to relocate the capital city from congested, sinking Jakarta to Borneo, citing other more pressing challenges that demand government attention, as well as the need for Investment to be distributed more evenly across districts.

Ganjar Pranowo, 55, is a long-time public servant and the former governor of Central Java. He is a member of the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the same party to which Jokowi belonged when president. Jokowi appeared to endorse Ganjar’s quest for prime minister, but his son Gibran was later named as Prabowo’s running mate.

The following image shows the polls and the leading candidates:

Image Source: The Economist

Crucial Issues that are dominating these elections

In the run-up to the election, the country faces economic, electoral, and diplomatic challenges such as :-

1. Capital relocation and industrial investment :

Indonesia intends to transfer its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara in Borneo, a massive undertaking expected to cost $30 billion. Ganjar and Prabowo, presidential candidates, support the initiative, but Anies opposes the proposed smart city. Investors are concerned about the transition phase and the potential impact of the election on the investing landscape.

Large-scale investments are also focusing on Indonesia’s objectives in the electric vehicle industry, using the country’s abundant mineral and metal resources for EV batteries. President Jokowi has worked with firms such as Tesla and Ford to construct manufacturing plants, as well as implemented measures such as a prohibition on the export of certain commodities.

2. Limited Representation:

In Indonesia, voters have mostly concentrated on the presidential election, ignoring legislative elections. Over 80% of the current parliament is made up of coalition parties, which limits opposition representation. The absence of a functional and balanced parliament raises questions about democratic procedures. Controversial legislative initiatives, including the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) law revision, the Job Creation Law, and the Constitutional Court (MK) law revision, were simply passed. Protests erupted in 2020 over concerns that the job development bill will erode worker rights, while in 2019, Indonesians criticized a law weakening KPK. The MK law modification is noteworthy since the court is tasked with resolving potential election disputes in 2024.

Greater opposition participation in parliament may raise the threshold for passing such laws, however a high hurdle to candidacy, favoring the elites. This leads to insufficient representation for women, youth, and marginalized members of society. Indonesia is classed “partly free” in the Freedom in the World 2023 survey by Freedom House, with political parties subject to gender quotas but women still underrepresented in electoral politics (58 out of 100 points).

3. Indonesia-China Ties:

Indonesia’s prospective leaders will have considerable geopolitical problems, particularly in managing their relationship with Beijing. According to a 2023 survey from Singapore’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, 71.1% of Indonesian respondents consider China to be the most significant economic force in Southeast Asia. This perception rose from 67.9% in 2022. China’s economic influence over Indonesia is considered unavoidable, as the country is economically dependent on China.

Despite these worries, Indonesia remains an appealing destination for global investment, and its relationship with China has improved under President Jokowi. The high-speed railway, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is touted as an example of a high point in bilateral relations. However, some Indonesians are concerned about potential debt traps and an influx of Chinese workers as a result of the stronger relationship.

4. Israel-Hamas War:

According to a Lowy Institute survey from 2021, Indonesians rank encouraging peace and conflict resolution (86%) and advocating for Muslim populations in other nations (78%) as foreign policy priorities. Geopolitically, the Israel-Palestine conflict is a major concern for Indonesia, with many advocating for a two-state solution. All three presidential candidates, Anies, Prabowo, and Ganjar, have expressed support for Palestinians, with Anies specifically stating that if elected, he will visit the Palestinian territories. Ganjar also opposed Israel’s participation in the 2023 FIFA U-20 World Cup, which resulted in FIFA stripping Indonesia of its hosting rights.

5. Jokowi looms huge over Indonesia’s election:

Incumbent Indonesian President Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, is extremely popular but has term limits. In the previous two elections, he defeated Prabowo Subianto, a former general affiliated with the dictatorial New Order regime. Jokowi’s campaigns highlighted pluralist nationalism, good government, and social-economic growth, in contrast to Prabowo’s law-and-order rhetoric and hardline Islamist support.

Despite Jokowi’s victory being lauded for eliminating religious identitarianism and strongman politics, Prabowo is once again a candidate for the 2024 election. Other candidates include Anies Baswedan, a conservative advocate for modernist Muslims, and Ganjar Pranowo, a former governor who supports Jokowi’s progressive ideology.

Interestingly, Jokowi has endorsed Prabowo because he supports major development projects, demonstrating the breadth of Indonesia’s ruling coalitions and Jokowi’s readiness to embrace illiberal elements for political gain. This shift in support has prompted analysts to refer to Jokowi’s policy as “fighting illiberalism with illiberalism,” as he disrupts opposition party organization and limits media and online criticism. Despite Jokowi’s achievements in infrastructure, economic development, and social stability, his support for illiberal techniques raises fears about democratic backsliding in Indonesia.

Indonesia’s Democratic decline

Indonesia’s democratic collapse has continued under President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), and recent events have raised new concerns about the country’s legal and constitutional basis. A watershed event came in October when Indonesia’s Constitutional Court ruled that Jokowi’s 36- year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, could run for vice president on Prabowo’s ticket. This ruling went against the 2017 election law, passed during Jokowi’s first term, which set the minimum age for presidential and vice-presidential candidates at 40.

Despite the lack of legal precedence, the Constitutional Court, led by Anwar Usman, who also happens to be married to Jokowi’s sister, validated Gibran’s candidacy based on his experience as the current mayor of Surakarta. The decision startled both Indonesians and foreign onlookers, resulting in a popular outcry and legal challenges. Despite broad disfavor, the Prabowo-Gibran ticket leads in pre-election public opinion polls, highlighting the challenges to the country’s democratic foundations as it prepares for a key election.

Legislative elections in Indonesia’s multiparty presidential system produce highly fractionalized results, with the largest legislative parties often controlling roughly one-fifth of the House of Representatives (DPR). The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the largest party, presently controls 22% of DPR seats. To govern effectively, the president must build a coalition that includes at least three legislative parties. Since 1999, Indonesian politics has seen the creation of big and enormous parliamentary coalitions that operate more like cartels than traditional coalitions. The “cartel” concept entails forming a coalition with as many parties as possible in order to reduce legislative opposition. Presidential leadership becomes critical due to the modest size of legislative parties relative to the coalition, with control of the presidency being a significant concern in national electoral politics.

The Way Forward

As Indonesia’s February 2024 election approaches, two key issues will determine the political landscape. To begin, the composition of the elected House of Representatives (DPR) will be constantly monitored, with the expectation that most parties will eventually join the governing coalition. However, the size of each party’s faction will be important, and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which has usually been the largest, is divided internally between its main election candidate, Ganjar, and its most popular elected leader, Jokowi. A diminished PDI-P in the legislature may empower other parties, affecting the balance of power.

The presidential race, on the other hand, will draw the most attention. According to Indonesian law, a presidential ticket must receive a majority of votes to be elected. If no ticket receives 50% of the vote, the top two finishers will face battle in a June 2024 runoff election. Jokowi’s backing of his son, Gibran, and former opponent, Prabowo, has considerably bolstered their ticket, making them strong competitors for the top two positions. The immediate question is whether Prabowo and Gibran can win outright in the first round, avoiding a runoff.

Looking beyond the election, there are concerns about the possible long-term damage to Indonesia’s democracy. While there is no imminent prospect of a coup or the suspension of democracy, the country is experiencing a crisis of trust in the rule of law. The 2024 presidential election, marked by elite politicking, revealed the vulnerability of Indonesia’s constitutional structure. Jokowi’s promotion of candidates with uncertain legal eligibility, as evidenced by the contentious Constitutional Court decision permitting his son to run despite age restrictions, has aroused concerns about the judiciary’s independence and commitment to the rule of law.

This circumstance raises a long-term question about the resilience of Indonesia’s democratic institutions. While the government is not currently facing any immediate challenges, elite maneuvering in the 2024 election has highlighted the vulnerability of Indonesia’s constitutional system. Many Indonesians and foreign observers agree that the country’s democratic administration is jeopardized by a lack of trust in the rule of law. As the election progresses, the country considers the potential impact of these political dynamics on the integrity and stability of its democratic system.

Conclusion

Critics have questioned the integrity of the 2024 election, citing President Jokowi’s attempts to retain influence after leaving office. A high court, led by Jokowi’s brother-in-law and in charge of any election issues, changed eligibility standards to allow Jokowi’s son to run alongside Prabowo, a move that some experts and voters argue threatens Indonesia’s 25-year-old democracy. Elections in Indonesia are frequently fought around people rather than issues, with candidates running on similar platforms encouraging prosperity, jobs, and pluralism in the world’s largest Muslim-majority country. Each candidate’s platform provided insight into Indonesia’s potential foreign policy direction. Regardless of the outcome of the approaching election, a “free and active” foreign policy is expected to continue. However, each competitor has stressed specific priorities that distinguish them as unique.

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Anisha